Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2c4…43cc politics 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate14%8W / 51L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$7
sports 19% −$4
other 9% −$1
culture 7% −$1
crypto 5% −$3
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.4% -1.0% 50% 25% -9.6%
≤30d 6 +6.2% -3.9% 33% 17% -9.6%
≤90d 7 +5.3% -4.7% 43% 14% -9.5%
all 59 -3.4% -12.6% 14% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses8 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage270d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2 $0 -19%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $89 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $687 +$1 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $87 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $254 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 23 $642 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $451 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $89 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $87 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 07 $90 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $91 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 -68%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $91 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $88 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 26 $179 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 25 $1 $0 -17%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 22 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 20 $1 $0 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 30 $93 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $184 −$1 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 27 $80 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 24 $94 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 06 $558 −$1 -0%
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins? Nov 04 $94 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Oct 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 22 $441 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 15 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $86 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 35h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $86 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $84 5d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $84 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $89 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $89 23d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 36d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 106d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 108d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 119d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY No 100¢ $56 126d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY No 100¢ $29 126d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 130d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 138d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 140d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 142d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.20 · official $86.20 (match) · 361 history records