trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Knicks | 36¢ | 36¢ | $80 | $79 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $38 | $36 | −$2 (-6%) |
| Spread: Knicks (-4.5) | Knicks | 27¢ | 26¢ | $27 | $26 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-7%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 25¢ | 24¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $23 | $0 | −$23 (-100%) |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Knicks | 15¢ | 0¢ | $24 | $0 | −$24 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $5 | +$2 | +30% |
| Spread: United States (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $28 | +$60 | +216% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $71 | +$64 | +90% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $92 | +$104 | +114% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $88 | +$66 | +75% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? | Jun 09 | $24 | −$23 | -95% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $84 | −$24 | -28% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | +14% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? | Jun 09 | $5 | −$1 | -21% |
| Spread: Knicks (-9.5) | Jun 09 | $10 | −$7 | -64% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? | Jun 08 | $2 | +$3 | +107% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? | Jun 07 | $78 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | +18.9% | +7.6% | 64% | 50% | +35.2% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +18.9% | +7.6% | 64% | 50% | +35.2% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +18.9% | +7.6% | 64% | 50% | +35.2% |
| all | 14 | +18.9% | +7.6% | 64% | 50% | +35.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +7.6% | 50% | +35.2% |
| 10% | -2.7% | 43% | +22.2% |
| 15% | -12.1% | 36% | +10.4% |
| 20% | -20.7% | 36% | -0.4% |