Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd2c3…1b0a
other · 21 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$218 +31%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$224 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$180
Realized+$224
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)14 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 7 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$224
14 days+$224
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $38 $36 −$2 (-6%)
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Knicks 27¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 15¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $28 +$60 +216%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $71 +$64 +90%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $92 +$104 +114%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $88 +$66 +75%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $24 −$23 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $84 −$24 -28%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -21%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $10 −$7 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +107%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 07 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% +$95
other 41% +$123
crypto 11% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 39m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 39m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $7 55m
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 27¢ $28 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 75¢ $87 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 92¢ $135 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 3h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 3h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $28 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $196 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $92 30h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $5 31h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 43h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $31 47h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 47h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 10¢ $8 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 86¢ $146 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $83 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +18.9% +7.6% 64% 50% +35.2%
≤30d 14 +18.9% +7.6% 64% 50% +35.2%
≤90d 14 +18.9% +7.6% 64% 50% +35.2%
all 14 +18.9% +7.6% 64% 50% +35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 50% +35.2%
10% -2.7% 43% +22.2%
15% -12.1% 36% +10.4%
20% -20.7% 36% -0.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.60 · official $179.60 (match) · 53 history records