Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D2 0xd2c1…a09e crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,899 (+9%) realized +$1,833 · open +$66
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate70%35W / 15L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$4,152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,158
7 days+$1,588
14 days+$1,599
30 days+$1,599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$972
sports 26% +$938
crypto 10% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.8% -13.9% 46% 46% +0.6%
≤30d 25 -3.7% -12.9% 48% 48% +0.6%
≤90d 50 +0.8% -8.8% 70% 40% +0.0%
all 50 +0.8% -8.8% 70% 40% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 40% +0.0%
10% -17.5% 24% -9.6%
15% -25.5% 20% -18.3%
20% -32.8% 16% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$286 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$4,152
Realized+$1,833
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses35 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage72d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,823 $2,782 −$41 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $762 $764 +$2 (+0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $400 $500 +$100 (+25%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,326 +$1,774 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $234 +$266 +114%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,415 −$976 -69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $471 +$85 +18%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,590 +$334 +21%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$221 +216%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $305 +$362 +119%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $511 +$1,181 +231%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$230 +46%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $914 +$886 +97%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $1,009 +$420 +42%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $406 −$400 -99%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,800 −$344 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 15 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$11 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 08 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 08 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 03 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 03 $337 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 03 $285 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 02 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 17 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 17 $46 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 17 $37 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 17 $49 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 17 $163 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 17 $273 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 17 $20 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 17 $19 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 17 $32 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 16 $45 +$5 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $342 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $518 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $253 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 27h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $439 27h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $140 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,151.82 · official $4,164.82 (match) · 791 history records