Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd2bd…dc03
crypto · 36 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$49 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$206 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$206
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day65.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days−$206
14 days−$206
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 84¢ 96¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $68 +$52 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $78 +$59 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$18 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$22 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $153 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $73 −$68 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$101 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $87 +$26 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $67 +$16 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $67 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $67 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$21 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$32 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $29 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$16 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $17 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $65 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $44 +$66 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $30 −$19 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $29 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $76 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $137 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -19.2% -26.9% 51% 37% -20.7%
≤30d 35 -19.2% -26.9% 51% 37% -20.7%
≤90d 35 -19.2% -26.9% 51% 37% -20.7%
all 35 -19.2% -26.9% 51% 37% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 37% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 31% -28.3%
15% -40.3% 23% -35.3%
20% -46.1% 17% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.26 · official $26.48 · 251 history records