Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2bc…a4c6 crypto 687 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,325 (-3%) realized −$1,325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%456W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$250
14 days−$814
30 days−$920
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$875
crypto 31% −$300
other 3% −$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -45.2% -50.4% 27% 27% -28.6%
≤30d 45 -16.1% -24.1% 49% 42% -23.4%
≤90d 156 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 50% -14.4%
all 687 -3.6% -12.8% 66% 43% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 43% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 29% -21.1%
15% -28.7% 19% -28.7%
20% -35.7% 11% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$36 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses456 / 231
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions0
Markets (closed)687 / 687
History coverage111d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 687 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $142 +$111 +78%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -46%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$39 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$49 +48%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $102 +$62 +61%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $202 −$25 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $302 +$88 +29%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 06 $151 −$151 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 03 $503 −$500 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $262 −$260 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $102 +$255 +250%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $70 +$43 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $404 −$400 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $221 +$49 +22%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $202 −$8 -4%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $253 −$250 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $208 −$205 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $152 +$102 +67%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $71 −$22 -30%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $432 +$98 +23%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $24 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $81 +$26 +32%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $51 +$9 +17%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $555 +$47 +8%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $101 +$53 +52%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $264 +$250 +95%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $60 +$4 +7%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5 May 24 $101 +$31 +31%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: Draw at halftime? May 23 $20 +$5 +23%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $30 −$21 -68%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 19 $31 +$51 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 17 $36 +$30 +83%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $50 +$10 +19%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $96 −$45 -47%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $50 +$5 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $63 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $151 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 79¢ $164 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 54¢ $178 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $102 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 60¢ $202 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $125 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $101 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $5 3d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $302 10d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos BUY GLYPH 51¢ $101 11d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos BUY GLYPH 52¢ $49 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 BUY Over 79¢ $503 13d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Vitality 28¢ $31 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2546 history records