Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D2 0xd2b7…5ea6 crypto 36 markets active 22h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate69%25W / 11L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$9
other 38% +$3
sports 3% −$8
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 20% -10.9%
≤30d 36 +1.5% -8.2% 69% 14% -8.9%
≤90d 36 +1.5% -8.2% 69% 14% -8.9%
all 36 +1.5% -8.2% 69% 14% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 14% -8.9%
10% -17.0% 8% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 8% -25.6%
20% -32.4% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses25 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage22d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $59 −$1 -1%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -10%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $49 $0 +0%
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Jun 22 $9 $0 -1%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 22 $9 −$6 -61%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 22 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Uruguay finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 22 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $24 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $19 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +178%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? May 31 $11 −$4 -39%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $4 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $8 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 98¢ $53 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $54 21h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 99¢ $49 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $49 31h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 33h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 33h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? SELL Yes 84¢ $9 33h
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou SELL Yes 17¢ $4 33h
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr SELL Yes 62¢ $13 44h
Will Uruguay finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 85¢ $9 44h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $11 2d
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 50¢ $11 2d
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 41¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY No 48¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $21 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 2d
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records