Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd2b6…ed4e weather 433 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (279 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$871 (+1%) realized +$873 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate99%389W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day278.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days+$75
14 days+$1,924
30 days+$1,924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,206
finance 0% +$17
crypto 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (279 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+78.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 238 +91.0% +72.8% 98% 36% -9.3%
≤30d 394 +97.5% +78.7% 99% 33% -6.6%
≤90d 394 +97.5% +78.7% 99% 33% -6.6%
all 394 +97.5% +78.7% 99% 33% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover278.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +78.7% 33% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here +61.6% 32% -15.5%
15% +46.0% 30% -23.7%
20% +31.7% 29% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +98% → late +97% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$61 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.28 per $1 lost it wins $7.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3,873
Realized+$873
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses389 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions42
Markets (closed)394 / 433
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$194
Trades / day278.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? No 97¢ 99¢ $507 $517 +$10 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? No 93¢ 93¢ $373 $373 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $337 $339 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $283 $284 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 93¢ 99¢ $266 $283 +$17 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $219 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 93¢ 76¢ $265 $218 −$47 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $216 $215 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? No 95¢ 98¢ $210 $215 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $189 $190 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $169 $169 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? No 97¢ 100¢ $138 $142 +$4 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $136 $136 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $41 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 18? No 93¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 19? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5? Jun 18 $0 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? Jun 18 $217 −$217 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 2 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,003 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $282 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $158 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $282 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $338 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $218 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $218 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? Jun 17 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 10? Jun 17 $611 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 17 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 17 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 17 $211 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 17 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 10? Jun 17 $209 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? Jun 17 $338 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 17 $215 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 17 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $218 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $177 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 18? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 18? Jun 17 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $337 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $157 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $218 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $282 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $222 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 17? Jun 16 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $282 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $395 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1,142 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $556 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $144 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 18m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $28 22m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 26m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $14 27m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 27m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 27m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 27m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 27m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $9 29m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $12 38m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $12 38m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 39m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $14 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,872.59 · official $3,792.14 · 3500 history records