Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2b2…9668 crypto 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$588 (-46%) realized −$610 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%41W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$549
crypto 38% −$56
politics 10% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -25.1% -32.3% 41% 38% -16.2%
≤30d 85 -25.1% -32.3% 41% 38% -16.2%
≤90d 86 -24.4% -31.6% 42% 38% -14.3%
all 110 -30.0% -36.6% 37% 35% -53.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 35% -53.4%
10% -42.7% 27% -57.8%
15% -48.2% 22% -61.9%
20% -53.3% 15% -65.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$610
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses41 / 69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage146d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 0¢ 60¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$8 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$7 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 30m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.63 · official $3.34 (match) · 457 history records