Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D2 0xd2b1…c3c7 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-6%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$8
sports 15% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -35.5% -41.6% 50% 50% -17.0%
≤30d 6 -35.5% -41.6% 50% 50% -17.0%
≤90d 6 -35.5% -41.6% 50% 50% -17.0%
all 6 -35.5% -41.6% 50% 50% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.6% 50% -17.0%
10% -47.2% 33% -24.9%
15% -52.3% 17% -32.2%
20% -57.0% 0% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $37 +$8 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 18¢ $5 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $27 16h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.55 · official $27.55 (match) · 11 history records