Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:05:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd2af…c1e8 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$61 (+4%) realized +$62 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$87
other 3% $0
world 3% −$19
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% −$16
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +29.0% +16.7% 100% 100% +16.7%
≤30d 4 -35.9% -42.0% 50% 50% -37.0%
≤90d 14 +6.2% -3.9% 79% 50% -2.2%
all 19 -5.9% -14.9% 74% 37% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 37% -5.5%
10% -23.0% 26% -14.5%
15% -30.5% 16% -22.8%
20% -37.3% 11% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$74 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage170d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 80¢ $171 $170 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $125 +$36 +29%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $122 +$33 +27%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $146 −$143 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $214 +$112 +52%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 08 $129 −$126 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 08 $9 +$1 +12%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 08 $14 $0 +2%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 08 $16 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? May 08 $18 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 08 $21 $0 +1%
76ers vs. Celtics May 08 $68 +$10 +14%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 08 $54 +$26 +48%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 08 $103 +$203 +197%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $12 end of January? Feb 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 04 $26 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jan 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 10 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $16 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $156 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 77¢ $125 9d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BIG 78¢ $122 15d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY DN SOOPers 20¢ $66 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G BUY Legacy 33¢ $146 27d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $214 35d
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch BUY HANJIN BRION Challengers 27¢ $129 41d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 33¢ $103 50d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 67¢ $54 53d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 87¢ $68 60d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $9 86d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $21 90d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 98¢ $14 100d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $16 103d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 110d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 110d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 128d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 84¢ $19 145d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $26 156d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $12 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $21 159d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.88 · official $169.88 (match) · 36 history records