Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2ae…f36b sports 753 markets active 4h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (244 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,935 (-13%) realized −$3,407 · open −$528
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%310W / 485L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day244.3pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$394
weather 22% +$289
other 15% +$694
finance 15% +$15
world 8% −$533
crypto 3% +$54
politics 1% +$2
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (244 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 460 -9.8% -18.4% 33% 29% -10.8%
≤30d 795 -2.6% -11.8% 39% 34% -8.0%
≤90d 795 -2.6% -11.8% 39% 34% -8.0%
all 795 -2.6% -11.8% 39% 34% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover244.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 34% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 31% -16.8%
15% -28.0% 29% -24.8%
20% -35.0% 26% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$18 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1,603
Realized−$3,407
Unrealized−$528
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses310 / 485
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions70
Markets (closed)795 / 753
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day244.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 795 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Evo Morales leaves Bolivia by June 30? No 83¢ 86¢ $386 $402 +$16 (+4%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 59¢ 54¢ $154 $139 −$15 (-10%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $128 $129 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $72 $70 −$2 (-2%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+2%)
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 25¢ $77 $67 −$10 (-13%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 62¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $63 $61 −$2 (-4%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals No 62¢ 62¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $34 $40 +$5 (+16%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 42¢ 98¢ $17 $40 +$23 (+132%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 34¢ 38¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-9%)
Will Chainlink reach $22 by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $26 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Martin Ødegaard record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $5 $19 +$14 (+278%)
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $13 $16 +$2 (+19%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $28 $14 −$14 (-50%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 23¢ 26¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Will Norway win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 24¢ $1 $12 +$11 (+837%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 430 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Sudan vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Lautaro Midon Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 3? Jun 17 $26 −$29 -110%
Spread: Commanders (-4.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Powell say "Beige Book" during speech on October 14? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will PFK CSKA Moskva win on 2025-11-08? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX rescue the stranded Chinese astronauts? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Atletico Madrid: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Syria President events on Novem Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2025-10-30? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on November 2? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will another country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-08? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Celebrate" or "Celebrated" be said during Eurovision? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley FC vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3h
João Cancelo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4h
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4h
João Cancelo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $62 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $38 6h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $17 7h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 23¢ $24 8h
João Cancelo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 9h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $60 10h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 11h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $60 11h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $2 11h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $15 11h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $7 11h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Under 100¢ $60 11h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 74¢ $88 12h
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $76 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,603.25 · official $1,603.01 (match) · 3500 history records