Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2ae…963a crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$428 (-41%) realized −$428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$428
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-61.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -57.5% -61.6% 33% 22% -48.7%
≤30d 9 -57.5% -61.6% 33% 22% -48.7%
≤90d 9 -57.5% -61.6% 33% 22% -48.7%
all 9 -57.5% -61.6% 33% 22% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.6% 22% -48.7%
10% ← realistic here -65.3% 22% -53.6%
15% -68.6% 11% -58.1%
20% -71.7% 0% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$94 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $106 −$61 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $314 +$134 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $110 −$100 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $107 −$107 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $252 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $24 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records