Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2ac…e5fe crypto 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1736 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$42,451 (+76%) realized +$42,962 · open −$511
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate13%73W / 500L
Whale WR24%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$591per market
Trades / day1735.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7,480
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1736 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-82.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 573 -80.4% -82.3% 13% 12% -71.8%
≤30d 573 -80.4% -82.3% 13% 12% -71.8%
≤90d 573 -80.4% -82.3% 13% 12% -71.8%
all 573 -80.4% -82.3% 13% 12% -71.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1735.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -82.3% 12% -71.8%
10% ← realistic here -84.0% 7% -74.5%
15% -85.5% 3% -76.9%
20% -87.0% 1% -79.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 24% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -61% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
36.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$279 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$42,962
Unrealized−$511
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses73 / 500
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)573 / 95
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$591
Trades / day1735.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 573 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $514 $3 −$511 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $348 −$348 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $238 −$238 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $431 −$431 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $534 −$534 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $497 −$497 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $707 −$707 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $808 −$808 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $477 −$477 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,244 −$1,244 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $654 −$654 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1,222 −$1,222 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $373 −$373 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $784 −$784 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $434 −$434 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $251 −$251 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $594 −$594 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $367 −$367 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $28 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $48 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $14 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $153 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $39 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $77 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $18 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $18 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $47 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $113 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $172 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.46 · official $384.60 · 3500 history records