Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd2ab…8432 sports 106 markets active 11h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,583 (+15%) realized +$4,582 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%50W / 55L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$591est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,842
7 days+$1,639
14 days+$2,897
30 days+$3,441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$3,549
crypto 4% +$109
other 4% +$11
world 1% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 40% +1.4%
≤30d 105 -5.3% -14.3% 48% 45% +0.7%
≤90d 105 -5.3% -14.3% 48% 45% +0.7%
all 105 -5.3% -14.3% 48% 45% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 45% +0.7%
10% -22.5% 41% -8.9%
15% -30.0% 34% -17.7%
20% -36.9% 30% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$128 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$4,582
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses50 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$591
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage26d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $228 −$228 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $442 −$442 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $114 +$111 +98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $297 −$297 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $428 −$428 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $205 −$66 -32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $204 +$71 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$49 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $78 −$76 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1,021 −$780 -76%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$18 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $26 +$18 +70%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 +$255 +124%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $153 +$74 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $305 −$12 -4%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 −$14 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,890 +$851 +30%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $52 +$103 +200%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $264 +$223 +84%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $154 +$162 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $103 +$88 +86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $103 +$8 +8%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$27 -53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $160 −$21 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $107 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $153 −$138 -90%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $334 +$326 +98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $511 +$88 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $208 −$134 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$26 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,750 +$2,051 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $51 +$58 +113%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $360 +$138 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $542 −$221 -41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,578 −$1,757 -68%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $320 +$323 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $614 +$227 +37%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 09 $155 +$91 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $228 10h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $225 10h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $114 11h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 12¢ $149 11h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 28¢ $293 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $297 16h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 26¢ $164 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $275 19h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $264 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $204 20h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 52¢ $138 20h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $205 21h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 33h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 2¢ $87 33h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $234 34h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $170 34h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 13¢ $154 34h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 34h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 17¢ $308 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $43 35h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 35¢ $206 36h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $52 36h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 37h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $103 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $240 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $220 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 27¢ $52 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $154 40h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $52 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $153 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.59 · official $15.59 (match) · 385 history records