Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd2a8…c217
other · 8 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$79
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%
Chart Positions 4 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 93% $0
sports 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 50% -8.7%
≤30d 4 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 50% -8.7%
≤90d 4 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 50% -8.7%
all 4 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 50% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 50% -8.7%
10% -28.2% 50% -17.5%
15% -35.1% 50% -25.4%
20% -41.5% 25% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.29 · official $79.30 (match) · 10 history records