Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D2 0xd2a5…2cbd sports 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 724d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$536 (+4%) realized +$536 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 44L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$499
politics 12% −$8
crypto 7% −$10
other 6% +$85
economics 5% −$1
culture 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +7.4% -2.9% 67% 58% -6.2%
≤30d 12 +7.4% -2.9% 67% 58% -6.2%
≤90d 38 +3.5% -6.3% 50% 47% -20.6%
all 79 -1.6% -10.9% 44% 42% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 42% -5.3%
10% -19.5% 39% -14.4%
15% -27.2% 28% -22.6%
20% -34.4% 24% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$54 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

724d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$536
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage724d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $219 +$74 +34%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $107 −$103 -96%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $144 −$10 -7%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $40 +$10 +24%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $30 −$13 -42%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $36 +$3 +9%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $29 +$20 +71%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $119 +$19 +16%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $32 +$11 +33%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $16 +$4 +23%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$30 +152%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $1,030 −$329 -32%
EC Bahia vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $270 −$270 -100%
Botafogo FR vs. SC Internacional: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $435 −$435 -100%
Botafogo FR vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $590 +$406 +69%
Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $275 −$275 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $108 +$79 +74%
Frosinone Calcio vs. Carrarese Calcio: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $2 +$7 +300%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $34 −$34 -100%
AC Reggiana 1919 vs. Palermo FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Delfino Pescara 1936 vs. SS Juve Stabia: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
FC Südtirol vs. Mantova 1911: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Delfino Pescara 1936 vs. SS Juve Stabia: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $200 +$121 +60%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $144 −$38 -26%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 9.5 Total Cor Apr 25 $174 −$15 -9%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 10.5 Total Co Apr 25 $92 −$9 -10%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $203 +$115 +56%
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $5 −$1 -11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $33 +$47 +144%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $64 +$26 +40%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $208 +$61 +30%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $52 +$48 +92%
Júbilo Iwata vs. FC Gifu: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $56 +$30 +54%
Club Puebla vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $96 +$45 +47%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $104 −$12 -11%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $120 −$25 -21%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $196 −$196 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 17 $266 +$54 +20%
Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $20 +$15 +79%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) Mar 16 $144 −$144 -100%
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score Mar 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs BNK FEARX (+2.5) Mar 16 $390 +$110 +28%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 16 $58 +$42 +72%
Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 230.5 Mar 16 $441 +$458 +104%
Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 233.5 Mar 16 $8 +$6 +72%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $53 +$15 +28%
RCD Mallorca vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $5 +$8 +156%
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs ChickenBurger (BO3) Dec 30 $808 +$910 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $292 14m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime $4 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 35¢ $107 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $4 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $4 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $19 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $0 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $130 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 17¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? SELL Yes $17 3h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes $39 3h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 13¢ $49 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 35¢ $138 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $119 8h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes $30 8h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $36 8h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes $29 8h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $114 9h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner SELL Execration 82¢ $43 12h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 61¢ $32 12h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter SELL InterActive Philippines 40¢ $4 14h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter SELL InterActive Philippines 40¢ $5 14h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 38¢ $8 14h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter SELL InterActive Philippines 36¢ $11 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 352 history records