Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:25:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D2 0xd2a5…740e other 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days+$129
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$85
sports 24% +$20
crypto 10% −$120
culture 1% +$5
politics 1% −$1
world 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -13.7% -21.9% 45% 31% -1.7%
≤30d 34 -20.3% -27.9% 41% 29% -8.1%
≤90d 34 -20.3% -27.9% 41% 29% -8.1%
all 82 -13.7% -21.9% 46% 28% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 28% -10.0%
10% -29.4% 18% -18.6%
15% -36.2% 13% -26.5%
20% -42.5% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 44
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage165d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? No 93¢ 92¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $25 +$4 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $145 +$6 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$6 -6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$1 -2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $153 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 −$20 -39%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $88 +$85 +97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$3 +18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $29 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $27 +$79 +298%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $167 +$59 +35%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $66 +$148 +226%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$20 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$37 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 13 $1 $0 -12%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? Jan 13 $4 −$1 -21%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Jan 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jan 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 13 $2 −$1 -28%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Jan 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jan 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jan 13 $2 $0 -5%
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? Jan 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jan 13 $1 $0 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jan 13 $4 $0 -10%
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? Jan 13 $1 $0 -13%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Jan 13 $3 $0 -15%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 13 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? BUY No 93¢ $105 10m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $105 10m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $64 11m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $64 26m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $60 31m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 100¢ $29 51m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 85¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $105 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 100¢ $151 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 96¢ $145 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $95 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $49 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $50 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 88¢ $152 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 89¢ $130 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 47¢ $31 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 79¢ $22 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $50 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $173 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $76 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $12 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 16h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 89¢ $29 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.07 · official $168.07 (match) · 206 history records