Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D2 0xd2a4…96d9 weather 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$736 (-4%) realized −$736 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%83W / 2L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$740
crypto 4% +$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 25 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 85 -0.9% -10.4% 98% 0% -13.4%
all 85 -0.9% -10.4% 98% 0% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -13.4%
10% -18.9% 0% -21.7%
15% -26.8% 0% -29.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$400 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$736
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses83 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)85 / 88
History coverage86d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $131 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $131 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $130 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $130 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? Jun 03 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $129 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 31? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $106 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 28? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on May 28? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on May 26? May 25 $128 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? May 23 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on May 22? May 21 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 17? May 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on May 17? May 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on May 15? May 14 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on May 13? May 12 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 12? May 11 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 10? May 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on May 10? May 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 9? May 09 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 8? May 08 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 3? May 03 $126 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or below on May 1? May 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on May 1? May 01 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on May 1? May 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 29? Apr 29 $115 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 29? Apr 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 28 Apr 29 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 28? Apr 28 $125 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 26? Apr 26 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on April 26? Apr 26 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 25? Apr 25 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 23? Apr 23 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 23? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on April 23 Apr 22 $91 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $131 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $131 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $130 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $120 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $130 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $130 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $130 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $129 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $21 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $93 17d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $21 17d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $15 17d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 18d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $129 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $106 23d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $93 25d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $15 25d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $128 25d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $128 28d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $128 30d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $128 32d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $47 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.75 · official $130.75 (match) · 221 history records