Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2a1…8ae3 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$1
other 23% $0
politics 13% +$1
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 -4.3% -13.4% 38% 6% -9.6%
all 37 -4.8% -13.9% 43% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 3% -9.5%
10% -22.1% 3% -18.1%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage381d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $35 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $35 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Apr 01 $1 $0 +30%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 24 $4 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 24 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ty Dillon win The Great American Getaway 400? Jun 22 $23 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 12 $23 +$1 +3%
Starmer out before July? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Trump x Elon talk by Monday? Jun 09 $23 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $31 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $30 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $31 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $29 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $11 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $11 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $5 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $9 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $2 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.68 · official $31.68 (match) · 138 history records