Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd2a1…8e53
crypto · 166 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10,209 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,802 · open −$497
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$5,802
Unrealized−$497
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses79 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$250
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage15d
Avg bet$906
Trades / day221.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 166 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$835
7 days−$453
14 days−$453
30 days−$5,802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 69¢ 0¢ $500 $3 −$497 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $308 +$199 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $250 −$17 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $498 +$45 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $421 −$24 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $413 +$101 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $261 +$65 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $270 +$65 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $253 +$20 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $84 +$174 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $205 +$111 +54%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5,001 −$5,001 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$11 +22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3,520 +$3,455 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$17 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $208 +$239 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $409 +$259 +63%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,585 +$1,806 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $128 −$128 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $454 −$454 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$8 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$4,003
sports 11% −$1,588
other 0% −$708
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -27.6% -34.5% 42% 37% -11.5%
≤30d 166 -19.8% -27.4% 48% 36% -13.0%
≤90d 166 -19.8% -27.4% 48% 36% -13.0%
all 166 -19.8% -27.4% 48% 36% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover221.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 36% -13.0%
10% -34.4% 27% -21.3%
15% ← realistic here -40.7% 19% -28.9%
20% -46.5% 13% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.91 · official $2.91 (match) · 3500 history records