Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2a0…fc54 politics 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 664d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$22
other 14% −$3
economics 11% −$2
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 112 -10.2% -18.7% 2% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 1% -9.7%
10% -26.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -33.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -40.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

664d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage664d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks have the worst record in the NBA? Feb 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nouvelle Vague win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards Nov 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Zion Williamson lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dexter Lawrence win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $15k in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Rainbow airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Vivek replaces Vance as U.S. senator for Ohio? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
NYC mayoral special election in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Nikki Haley be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 20 $0 $0 -3%
Will $NEIRO be listed first on Binance? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will the New Orleans Saints finish with the worst record in the NFL? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will there be between 21 and 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 14h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 27d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 27d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 36d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 37d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $49 46d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 47d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $49 50d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $49 50d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $50 73d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $50 73d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 85d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 86d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 95d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 95d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 99d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 99d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 101d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 102d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 103d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 104d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $50 107d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $51 107d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 109d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 247 history records