Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd2a0…3935 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+5%) realized +$13 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$15
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$22
other 10% +$47
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +18.4% +7.1% 50% 50% -5.4%
≤30d 44 +1.2% -8.4% 45% 45% -8.1%
≤90d 44 +1.2% -8.4% 45% 45% -8.1%
all 44 +1.2% -8.4% 45% 45% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 45% -8.1%
10% -17.2% 45% -16.9%
15% -25.2% 45% -24.9%
20% -32.5% 41% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage8d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 96¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+60%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 84¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+74%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 28¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $61 −$32 -52%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 +$16 +786%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$28 +93%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$20 +65%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 +$17 +57%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$10 -50%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will any player record 40+ kills on a single map at Masters London 202 Jun 21 $25 +$18 +74%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4 +$3 +79%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4 +$3 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $1 +$3 +304%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 +$2 +70%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$4 +84%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $20 +$14 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$6 +123%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$5 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $20 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $30 7h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 54¢ $28 8h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $10 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 9h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $30 9h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Harry Kane: 1+ g BUY 39¢ $5 10h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 10h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 20h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $15 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $30 26h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 60¢ $30 27h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $48 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 30h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 63¢ $30 30h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 30h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 69¢ $10 46h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 68¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 46h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 68¢ $5 46h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 68¢ $5 46h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $7 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $7 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.79 · official $97.79 (match) · 83 history records