Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D2 0xd29b…d17d other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-5%) realized −$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$12
crypto 13% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.5% -26.3% 57% 29% -19.6%
≤30d 7 -18.5% -26.3% 57% 29% -19.6%
≤90d 7 -18.5% -26.3% 57% 29% -19.6%
all 7 -18.5% -26.3% 57% 29% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 29% -19.6%
10% -33.3% 29% -27.3%
15% -39.8% 29% -34.3%
20% -45.7% 14% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$6 -52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$11 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 2h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $12 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.60 · official $82.55 (match) · 24 history records