Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd29a…71b6 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-3%) realized −$19 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$45
crypto 29% +$39
sports 26% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 41% +3.4%
≤30d 22 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 41% +3.4%
≤90d 51 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 35% -13.8%
all 51 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 35% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 35% -13.8%
10% -18.2% 33% -22.0%
15% -26.1% 31% -29.5%
20% -33.3% 31% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage52d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $86 $87 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $77 +$10 +14%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +272%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 04 $103 −$102 -99%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 04 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 04 $1 +$2 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 04 $16 +$50 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 04 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 04 $1 +$3 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Keyd (BO3) - Odyssey Cup Brazil Group Sta May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 $0 -4%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 +$12 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $2 +$7 +365%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs OLDBOYS- - Map 2 Winner Apr 26 $9 −$3 -39%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $20 +$17 +84%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs OLDBOYS- - Map 1 Winner Apr 25 $6 −$4 -75%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $6 +$3 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $86 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $32 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $29 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 28¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 42¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $74 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.29 · official $87.29 (match) · 124 history records