Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd297…1bed
other · 77 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$15 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$110
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses40 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage534d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 2 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $109 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 02 $111 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 17 $110 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $109 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 27 $108 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $215 +$1 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Mar 14 $106 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 04 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 04 $106 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 24 $106 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Feb 24 $106 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Feb 01 $104 +$1 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $59 +$2 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 10 $59 $0 -0%
Congress authorizes military force against Venezuela by January 31? Jan 10 $56 $0 -0%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Jan 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 05 $64 +$1 +1%
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? Dec 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Dec 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 26 $59 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 19 $59 $0 +0%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? Dec 12 $59 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Dec 08 $54 +$2 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will Apple reach $332 in November? Nov 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? Nov 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Nov 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 17 $56 $0 +1%
Will Steven Ramm win Survivor season 49? Nov 10 $40 $0 -0%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $56 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 02 $56 $0 +1%
Hawks vs. Nets Oct 30 $33 +$1 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Oct 30 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31? Oct 20 $20 $0 +0%
SBF released from custody in 2025? Oct 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will SBF launch a coin by September 30? Oct 06 $52 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? Sep 27 $51 +$1 +1%
Russia announces air truce by August 31? Aug 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Astronomer CEO Andy Byron sue Coldplay? Aug 06 $51 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? Jul 28 $5 $0 +5%
Israeli parliament dissolved before August? Jul 28 $46 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 20 $41 $0 +0%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July? Jul 18 $51 $0 -0%
Apple announces iPhone assembly in the U.S. before September? Jul 07 $3 $0 -4%
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $7 −$2 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 23% +$11
world 23% −$8
other 20% −$5
politics 16% +$6
tech 6% +$5
economics 6% +$3
sports 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $109 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $110 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $110 43d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $111 57d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $79 58d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $32 58d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $110 66d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $110 67d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $109 78d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $109 78d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $65 91d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $36 91d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $7 91d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL No 98¢ $107 92d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL No 98¢ $1 92d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 98¢ $108 92d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL No 97¢ $108 92d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 96¢ $107 92d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $107 92d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $106 102d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $106 102d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $106 102d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $106 110d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 100¢ $106 110d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 110d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? SELL No 100¢ $106 110d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $106 125d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 125d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 75 -2.5% -11.8% 53% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.2%
10% -20.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.37 · official $110.37 (match) · 256 history records