Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D2 0xd297…08f5 other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$112 (-3%) realized −$118 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate64%49W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$28
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$268
crypto 26% +$158
world 3% +$3
economics 3% −$15
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +3.5% -6.4% 71% 47% -5.0%
≤30d 19 +3.6% -6.3% 68% 47% -4.9%
≤90d 27 +1.2% -8.4% 67% 33% -7.0%
all 76 -5.4% -14.4% 64% 32% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 32% -12.4%
10% -22.6% 21% -20.8%
15% -30.0% 12% -28.5%
20% -36.9% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses49 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)76 / 80
History coverage189d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $53 $57 +$4 (+7%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 63¢ 58¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $211 +$19 +9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$6 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 01 $100 +$2 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 30 $100 +$4 +4%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 23 $100 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 02 $100 +$6 +6%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 31 $100 −$1 -1%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 31 $91 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 31 $15 −$7 -50%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 31 $100 −$1 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 23 $256 +$37 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 16 $130 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 16 $250 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Feb 15 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Feb 15 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Feb 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Feb 15 $100 −$100 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 15 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 15 $177 +$91 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 15 $100 +$12 +12%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $133 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $156 +$9 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $49 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 16h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $220 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $100 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $15 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.96 · official $178.96 (match) · 203 history records