Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd296…5639 crypto 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$802 (-3%) realized −$802 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%80W / 78L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$440
7 days−$440
14 days−$440
30 days−$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,604
weather 0% −$20
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +14.8% +3.9% 70% 70% -23.5%
≤30d 10 +14.8% +3.9% 70% 70% -23.5%
≤90d 122 -8.7% -17.4% 51% 44% -18.2%
all 158 -9.0% -17.7% 51% 44% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 44% -15.7%
10% -25.5% 37% -23.8%
15% -32.7% 28% -31.1%
20% -39.3% 22% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$108 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$802
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses80 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage134d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $320 −$306 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $123 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $166 +$138 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$62 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$57 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $737 −$700 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $520 +$253 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $305 +$226 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $265 +$124 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $314 −$310 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 01 $72 −$27 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 01 $144 −$140 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 01 $105 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 01 $83 +$42 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 01 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 01 $115 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 01 $105 −$90 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 01 $62 −$48 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 01 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 01 $93 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 01 $52 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 01 $52 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 01 $63 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 01 $62 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 01 $136 +$133 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 01 $103 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 01 $206 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 01 $103 −$66 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 01 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 01 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 01 $52 +$30 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 01 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 01 $52 −$42 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 01 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 01 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 01 $104 +$127 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 01 $73 +$93 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 01 $39 +$34 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 01 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 01 $114 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 01 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 01 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 30 $91 −$88 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 30 $31 −$15 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 30 $10 −$3 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $319 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $139 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $123 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $304 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $166 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $214 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $212 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $757 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $510 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $305 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $236 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $304 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $45 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $30 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $41 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $138 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 409 history records