Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd296…084d sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,727 (+9%) realized +$1,618 · open +$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%71W / 60L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$514
14 days+$917
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$883
sports 42% +$949
politics 10% +$14
world 2% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +14.1% +3.3% 48% 42% -1.0%
≤30d 83 -6.4% -15.3% 45% 39% -9.0%
≤90d 131 +5.5% -4.5% 54% 42% -1.1%
all 131 +5.5% -4.5% 54% 42% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 42% -1.1%
10% -13.7% 40% -10.6%
15% -22.0% 36% -19.2%
20% -29.7% 31% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$84 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$704
Realized+$1,618
Unrealized+$109
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses71 / 60
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions6
Markets (closed)131 / 137
History coverage49d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 90¢ $168 $272 +$103 (+62%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $126 $121 −$5 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $102 $99 −$4 (-4%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $92 $98 +$6 (+7%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 53¢ 62¢ $53 $62 +$8 (+16%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 54¢ 54¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $171 −$49 -29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $93 +$1 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $124 +$76 +61%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $147 +$253 +171%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $173 +$127 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $80 +$120 +150%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $130 +$170 +131%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$100 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$159 +156%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $436 −$276 -63%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $308 +$92 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $202 +$198 +98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $238 +$62 +26%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 +$107 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $940 +$60 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $154 −$154 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $391 −$90 -23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $310 +$96 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $92 +$158 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $84 +$116 +138%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $78 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$1 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $179 +$119 +66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $100 +$92 +92%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $120 +$80 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $82 +$118 +144%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $207 +$93 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $108 −$108 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $146 +$49 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $219 +$238 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $102 +$51 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $108 −$108 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $110 −$110 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 03 $101 −$93 -93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $81 −$81 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 53¢ $53 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 47¢ $47 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 47¢ $20 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 47¢ $18 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 47¢ $9 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 46¢ $93 9h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $53 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $51 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $122 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $124 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $0 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $6 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $1 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $34 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $8 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $1 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $0 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $42 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $42 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $168 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $97 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $80 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $173 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $51 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $39 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $704.24 · official $675.74 · 598 history records