Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D2 0xd294…34b1 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +149% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +125% what you keep after slip
Net edge+125%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$196
14 days+$151
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$114
sports 39% +$295
world 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+125.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +190.2% +162.6% 42% 42% -0.3%
≤30d 14 +148.8% +125.1% 36% 36% -9.5%
≤90d 14 +148.8% +125.1% 36% 36% -9.5%
all 14 +148.8% +125.1% 36% 36% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +125.1% 36% -9.5%
10% +103.5% 36% -18.2%
15% +83.9% 36% -26.1%
20% +65.9% 36% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +149% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +297% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$39 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $112 +$153 +136%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$41 +67%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$212 +414%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$91 +442%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $262 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 29h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 45h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records