Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd294…8374 crypto 89 markets active 21h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$265 (-8%) realized −$265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day40.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$257
14 days−$289
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$289
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -8.3% -17.1% 36% 17% -17.2%
≤30d 89 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 18% -17.5%
≤90d 89 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 18% -17.5%
all 89 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 18% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 18% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 12% -25.4%
15% -31.2% 10% -32.6%
20% -37.9% 9% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage12d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$8 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $48 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $22 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$38 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $423 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $455 −$40 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $79 −$20 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $45 −$15 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $50 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 561 history records