Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

D2 0xd293…dbb0 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized +$5 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown52%max

Avg bet$74per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+6.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+45.5%	+31.7%	100%	100%	+31.7%
≤30d	1	+45.5%	+31.7%	100%	100%	+31.7%
≤90d	3	-51.5%	-56.1%	33%	33%	+5.3%
all	4	+18.1%	+6.8%	50%	50%	+22.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.8%	50%	+22.0%
10%	-3.4%	50%	+10.3%
15%	-12.7%	50%	-0.3%
20%	-21.3%	25%	-10.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$72 vs −$25 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage

Net worth$12

Realized+$5

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage98d

Avg bet$74

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown52%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	7¢	$20	$12	−$9 (-43%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$199	+$91	+46%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?	Apr 29	$25	−$25	-100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	Apr 29	$26	−$25	-97%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Mar 18	$24	+$54	+227%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: France (-1.5) AND France to score first vs. Iraq?	BUY	80¢	$151	54m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$290	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$199	4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	5d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	BUY Yes	12¢	$26	54d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?	BUY Yes	43¢	$25	94d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	SELL Yes	68¢	$78	96d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	BUY Yes	21¢	$24	98d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.51 · official $161.51 · 13 history records