Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D2 0xd292…07f8 crypto 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$430 (+1%) realized +$363 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%107W / 115L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$235
7 days−$2,250
14 days−$1,804
30 days−$1,359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$843
sports 34% +$888
other 3% −$323
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -40.7% -46.3% 25% 20% -54.1%
≤30d 185 +3.6% -6.3% 49% 45% -13.6%
≤90d 222 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 41% -9.6%
all 222 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 41% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 41% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 32% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 27% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 23% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$65 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$363
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses107 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions2
Markets (closed)222 / 224
History coverage46d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Yes 54¢ 78¢ $144 $207 +$63 (+44%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? No 21¢ 19¢ $66 $60 −$5 (-8%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? Yes 51¢ 81¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $148 +$171 +115%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $154 +$41 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $77 −$25 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$80 -79%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $73 −$70 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $71 −$68 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $188 −$121 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $152 −$83 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $176 −$78 -45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $99 −$96 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $141 −$63 -45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,393 −$1,160 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $246 −$98 -40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $369 +$21 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $154 −$56 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $141 +$23 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$3 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $606 −$283 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $356 −$201 -56%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$11 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $401 +$19 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $580 +$228 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $199 +$40 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $381 −$75 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $364 +$402 +111%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $81 −$55 -68%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $51 −$23 -44%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 -11%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $48 −$12 -26%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $52 −$24 -46%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $41 −$41 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $41 −$41 -99%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $42 +$36 +86%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $51 +$51 +100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $41 +$32 +76%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $41 −$28 -68%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $41 −$41 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 7? Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -94%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $52 +$31 +60%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $52 −$51 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $41 −$41 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $43 −$42 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $84 −$81 -97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $41 +$34 +83%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $41 +$27 +65%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $52 −$8 -16%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $41 +$33 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 21¢ $69 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $149 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 14h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $200 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $87 20h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 20h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 20h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 75¢ $195 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 19¢ $52 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $154 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? SELL No 1¢ $3 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 2¢ $8 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 18¢ $72 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 44h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $56 44h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 23¢ $71 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 30¢ $30 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $53 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $73 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $121 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.59 · official $278.59 (match) · 930 history records