Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd290…4ed4 sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$385 (-17%) realized −$411 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%8W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$56
14 days−$388
30 days−$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$352
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 17% -14.8%
≤30d 45 -10.8% -19.3% 18% 18% -27.5%
≤90d 45 -10.8% -19.3% 18% 18% -27.5%
all 45 -10.8% -19.3% 18% 18% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 18% -27.5%
10% -27.0% 18% -34.5%
15% -34.0% 18% -40.8%
20% -40.5% 18% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$44 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized−$411
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 37
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions8
Markets (closed)45 / 53
History coverage14d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 36¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+54%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 64¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+48%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 +$83 +269%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$184 +596%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 +$100 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$119 +388%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$269 +874%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 +$169 +276%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$146 +238%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$153 +250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 23h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 23h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 23h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 23h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 23h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 47h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 47h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 47h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 47h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 47h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 4d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.02 · official $259.03 (match) · 61 history records