Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
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D2 0xd290…4cb0 crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%81W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$87
14 days−$71
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$60
crypto 26% −$6
other 20% +$24
tech 10% +$34
politics 1% −$2
culture 1% −$9
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 45% -32.8%
≤30d 151 -9.3% -17.9% 52% 43% -17.5%
≤90d 154 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 44% -11.2%
all 154 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 44% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 44% -11.2%
10% -24.5% 32% -19.7%
15% -31.8% 22% -27.4%
20% -38.5% 15% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses81 / 73
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 159
History coverage33d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +94%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $4 −$3 -77%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$2 +57%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will IR Iran win o Jun 15 $15 −$12 -78%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $54 −$53 -97%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 12 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$5 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +380%
Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$6 -51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$12 +40%
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 23m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 21¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $3 14h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 26h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.30 · official $2.14 (match) · 437 history records