Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:01:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd290…8580 crypto 1113 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$338 (-13%) realized −$338 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%733W / 499L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day120.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$404
7 days−$462
14 days−$521
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$160
other 10% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 -45.6% -50.8% 36% 35% -54.9%
≤30d 1232 -11.9% -20.3% 59% 55% -24.9%
≤90d 1232 -11.9% -20.3% 59% 55% -24.9%
all 1232 -11.9% -20.3% 59% 55% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 55% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 51% -32.0%
15% -34.9% 31% -38.6%
20% -41.3% 21% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$338
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses733 / 499
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1232 / 1113
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day120.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1232 Trades
no open positions (148 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$19 -207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.51 · official $6.51 (match) · 3500 history records