Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:54:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd288…2979 crypto 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%79W / 1L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
tech 0% +$4
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 80 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.62 per $1 lost it wins $3.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses79 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)80 / 84
History coverage243d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 95¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 25 $4 $0 +1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $98 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +6%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May? Jun 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 13? Jun 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 12 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? May 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 24? Apr 27 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 19? Apr 23 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 16? Apr 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on April 13? Apr 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $103 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? Apr 02 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 14? Mar 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 7? Mar 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 1? Mar 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 22? Feb 23 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 21 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 13? Feb 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 30 Jan 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $102 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 11d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? BUY No 98¢ $3 11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $6 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $100 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $98 19d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $4 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $98 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 47d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 48d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $2 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $99 55d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $96 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $98 66d
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $101 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $101 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 75d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $3 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $106 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $103 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $99 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $97 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $99 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $99 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.59 · official $109.59 (match) · 164 history records