Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd288…e692
sports · 279 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$20 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$121
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses85 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions39
Markets (closed)240 / 279
History coverage885d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 39 History 240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$12
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 17¢ 26¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+52%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 74¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 52¢ 53¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 77¢ 73¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 47¢ 42¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 65¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 78¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 74¢ 64¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Raducanu vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 21.5 Under 59¢ 59¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 32¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 59¢ 52¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? No 35¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+46%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 13 $3 $0 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 13 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6 +$3 +53%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Alex Bolt vs. Keegan Smith: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3 +$2 +60%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $6 +$7 +112%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $3 $0 -6%
Set 1 Winner: Bolt vs Smith Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 -3%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +43%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +50%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 09 $6 +$2 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $17 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6 +$5 +81%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $8 +$35 +449%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +24%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $6 +$3 +46%
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $3 +$2 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 31% −$21
other 27% −$79
sports 25% +$141
economics 14% $0
crypto 1% −$10
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$8
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 37m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 60¢ $1 37m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 51m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Raducanu vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $2 2h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $2 3h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 51¢ $3 3h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 57¢ $3 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 61¢ $3 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 1¢ $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $1 3h
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1 3h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 77¢ $1 3h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY No 87¢ $1 3h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 45¢ $1 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $1 3h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 47¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $4 3h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 34¢ $2 3h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 3h
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 17¢ $5 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 18¢ $4 29h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $4 31h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +7.0% -3.2% 44% 37% -5.0%
≤30d 60 +5.6% -4.4% 43% 37% -4.4%
≤90d 64 +10.3% -0.2% 47% 41% +9.7%
all 240 +5.0% -5.0% 35% 27% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 27% -9.5%
10% -14.1% 25% -18.1%
15% -22.4% 22% -26.0%
20% -30.0% 17% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.10 · official $121.00 (match) · 637 history records