Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D2 0xd286…cd12 world 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$116 (-9%) realized −$104 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$142
finance 19% −$255
politics 16% +$82
other 7% −$91
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -39.0% -44.8% 50% 50% -51.5%
≤30d 2 -39.0% -44.8% 50% 50% -51.5%
≤90d 4 -31.9% -38.4% 50% 50% -24.9%
all 4 -31.9% -38.4% 50% 50% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 50% -24.9%
10% -44.3% 25% -32.1%
15% -49.7% 25% -38.7%
20% -54.6% 25% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$128 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$674
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage69d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 70¢ 97¢ $212 $294 +$82 (+39%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $170 $165 −$5 (-3%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $111 $111 +$0 (+0%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $93 $96 +$2 (+3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 21¢ $100 $9 −$91 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 20 $255 −$255 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 20 $200 +$44 +22%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 01 $200 +$101 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $673.76 · official $673.76 (match) · 18 history records