Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd285…ab07 politics 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,456 (-2%) realized −$2,456 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate24%26W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,225per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$15
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$67
other 33% −$427
sports 17% −$1,934
culture 5% −$7
world 1% +$2
crypto 1% −$37
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 46 -2.3% -11.6% 4% 0% -12.4%
all 109 -5.5% -14.5% 24% 7% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 7% -11.2%
10% -22.6% 7% -19.7%
15% -30.1% 6% -27.5%
20% -37.0% 4% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,972) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$34 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$675
Realized−$2,456
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses26 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,225
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $675 $675 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,989 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,192 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,594 −$5 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,318 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $3,050 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,809 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,093 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,180 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,204 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,181 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $2,309 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,369 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,972 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 01 $213 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 01 $339 +$1 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $533 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $4,479 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $3,835 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,406 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $1,203 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,184 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $3,399 −$3 -0%
Hawks vs. Celtics Apr 06 $2,055 −$2,055 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $106 −$38 -36%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw? Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-02-22? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-14? Mar 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $675 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $892 4h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $893 6h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $702 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $525 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $526 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $527 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $528 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $523 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $524 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $526 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $527 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $702 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $869 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $870 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,232 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,233 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,245 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,247 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,126 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,128 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,128 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,130 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,084 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,086 20d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 20d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $859 23d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $861 23d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,050 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $674.52 · official $674.52 (match) · 352 history records