Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D2 0xd283…f944 crypto 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-8%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate69%95W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$0
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$3
weather 10% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +0.9% -8.7% 92% 15% -9.4%
≤30d 137 -10.5% -19.0% 69% 12% -17.1%
≤90d 137 -10.5% -19.0% 69% 12% -17.1%
all 137 -10.5% -19.0% 69% 12% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 12% -17.1%
10% -26.8% 6% -25.0%
15% -33.8% 4% -32.2%
20% -40.3% 4% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses95 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.98 · official $5.98 (match) · 353 history records