Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D2 0xd282…9e22 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$798 (+23%) realized +$1,046 · open −$248

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%9W / 3L

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$213per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$38est.

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+30.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+43.8%	+30.1%	75%	75%	+21.7%
≤30d	12	+43.8%	+30.1%	75%	75%	+21.7%
≤90d	12	+43.8%	+30.1%	75%	75%	+21.7%
all	12	+43.8%	+30.1%	75%	75%	+21.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+30.1%	75%	+21.7%
10%	+17.7%	67%	+10.0%
15%	+6.3%	67%	-0.6%
20%	-4.1%	58%	-10.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +44% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -12% → late +100% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$156 vs −$119 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.93 per $1 lost it wins $3.93

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1,046

Unrealized−$248

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses9 / 3

Est. fees paid−$38

Open positions3

Markets (closed)12 / 16

History coverage5d

Avg bet$213

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5	Over	53¢	0¢	$108	$0	−$108 (-100%)
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	36¢	0¢	$70	$0	−$70 (-100%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	44¢	0¢	$70	$0	−$70 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$261	+$142	+54%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$198	+$133	+67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	Jun 20	$110	+$160	+146%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$129	+$159	+123%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$109	+$120	+110%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$105	+$102	+97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$110	−$5	-5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$801	+$128	+16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$564	+$237	+42%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet	Jun 15	$304	+$226	+74%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$192	−$189	-99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$168	−$164	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	53¢	$110	31m
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$403	39m
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	64¢	$261	47m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	44¢	$71	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$332	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	59¢	$198	1h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	36¢	$71	1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	100¢	$270	2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	40¢	$110	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	100¢	$288	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	44¢	$129	3d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$229	3d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	BUY Over	47¢	$109	3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$207	3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$105	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	53¢	$105	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	54¢	$110	3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	57¢	$100	5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$929	5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	85¢	$801	5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	99¢	$801	5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	69¢	$564	5d
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet	SELL Perricard	99¢	$530	5d
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet	BUY Perricard	56¢	$304	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$192	5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	23¢	$168	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.28 (match) · 26 history records