Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd282…4e9b crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 493d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%41W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$7
crypto 9% +$2
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 53 +0.2% -9.3% 77% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

493d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses41 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage493d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 04 $45 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in November? Dec 03 $46 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $17 +$1 +3%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $26 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $5,853 −$7 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 02 $8 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 26 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Golden Knights win the 2025 Preident's Trophy? Mar 24 $44 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $23 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $45 62d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 91d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 92d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 122d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $7 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $24 150d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $31 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $44 182d
Will Solana reach $250 in November? BUY No 100¢ $46 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $17 242d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $34 243d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $35 273d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $18 301d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 99¢ $26 334d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $26 335d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 364d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 394d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 396d
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5,846 414d
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5,853 414d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.96 · official $50.96 (match) · 114 history records