Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd282…ab05 crypto 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$82 (+3%) realized +$83 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%80W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$269
14 days+$234
30 days+$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$313
other 7% +$269
sports 4% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +165.0% +139.7% 100% 100% +139.7%
≤30d 2 +32.5% +19.9% 50% 50% +97.1%
≤90d 2 +32.5% +19.9% 50% 50% +97.1%
all 157 -21.7% -29.1% 51% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 40% -13.0%
10% -35.9% 29% -21.3%
15% -42.1% 22% -28.9%
20% -47.8% 18% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +118% too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses80 / 77
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage123d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $163 +$269 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 12 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 12 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 12 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 12 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 12 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 11 $41 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 11 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 11 $39 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 11 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 11 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 11 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 11 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 11 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 11 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 11 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 10 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 10 $13 +$3 +23%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 10 $11 +$3 +25%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 10 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 10 $10 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 10 $9 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -99%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 08 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 08 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 08 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 07 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 03 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 03 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 03 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 02 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 01 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$4 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $54 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $432 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $163 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $56 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $55 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $26 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $6 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $41 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $41 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $39 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $37 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $37 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $37 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.25 · official $52.25 (match) · 347 history records