Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd281…3f6a other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-6%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 149d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$14
culture 8% −$16
crypto 7% +$2
tech 7% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 33% +3.7%
≤30d 3 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 33% +3.7%
≤90d 3 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 33% +3.7%
all 8 -15.7% -23.7% 62% 25% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 25% -17.4%
10% -31.0% 12% -25.3%
15% -37.7% 0% -32.5%
20% -43.8% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage149d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 +$8 +34%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Jan 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31? Jan 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 31 $14 +$2 +18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jan 31 $21 +$2 +10%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $35 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $24 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $24 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 3d
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 BUY Yes 80¢ $16 146d
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 146d
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 147d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 147d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY Yes 85¢ $14 147d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL Yes 100¢ $14 147d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 83¢ $11 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $1 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $1 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $1 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $1 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $1 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes $0 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.60 · official $34.60 (match) · 52 history records