Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:55:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd281…a3c9 world 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (233 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$424 (+11%) realized −$287 · open +$711
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day232.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$4,578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$230
other 32% +$390
politics 15% −$61
finance 9% +$243
tech 8% +$266
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-66.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -63.0% -66.5% 33% 33% -80.9%
≤30d 3 -63.0% -66.5% 33% 33% -80.9%
≤90d 3 -63.0% -66.5% 33% 33% -80.9%
all 3 -63.0% -66.5% 33% 33% -80.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover232.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.5% 33% -80.9%
10% ← realistic here -69.7% 0% -82.7%
15% -72.6% 0% -84.4%
20% -75.3% 0% -85.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$53 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4,578
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$711
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions76
Markets (closed)3 / 79
History coverage2d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day232.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 20¢ 60¢ $159 $472 +$314 (+197%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 32¢ 69¢ $184 $404 +$220 (+119%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 12¢ 47¢ $72 $290 +$218 (+304%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 42¢ 83¢ $135 $267 +$133 (+99%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $206 $193 −$13 (-6%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $199 $174 −$25 (-12%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $158 $173 +$15 (+9%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $141 $151 +$10 (+7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $84 $139 +$55 (+65%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 17¢ 34¢ $54 $108 +$54 (+100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 17¢ 55¢ $29 $94 +$64 (+221%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 40¢ $99 $84 −$15 (-15%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $107 $76 −$30 (-29%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 60¢ 60¢ $71 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? Yes 18¢ 29¢ $44 $71 +$27 (+61%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 68¢ 93¢ $51 $69 +$19 (+37%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $85 $69 −$16 (-18%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 31¢ 11¢ $189 $67 −$122 (-65%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 13¢ 35¢ $25 $67 +$42 (+169%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 62¢ 88¢ $46 $66 +$19 (+41%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 63¢ 72¢ $57 $65 +$8 (+15%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ 26¢ $44 $64 +$20 (+44%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $66 $50 −$16 (-24%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 62¢ 64¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 61¢ 48¢ $62 $48 −$14 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 18m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 18m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 18m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 18m
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 27m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 38m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 38m
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 2h
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $3 16h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $9 16h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $2 22h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $29 22h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $11 23h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,578.22 · official $4,582.78 (match) · 511 history records