Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D2 0xd280…82b3 weather 630 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,500 (+1%) realized +$12,642 · open −$7,142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate98%611W / 13L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$650per market
Trades / day81.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$15,315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% −$3,532
crypto 12% +$48
politics 6% −$6,783
world 4% +$23
other 1% +$11
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 334 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 4% -11.9%
≤90d 624 +1.8% -7.9% 98% 4% -10.3%
all 624 +1.8% -7.9% 98% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 4% -10.3%
10% -16.7% 4% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.8% 2% -26.7%
20% -32.2% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$699) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$408 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$15,315
Realized+$12,642
Unrealized−$7,142
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses611 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)624 / 630
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$650
Trades / day81.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 624 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 98¢ $7,000 $13,783 +$6,783 (+97%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $496 $499 +$2 (+0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $345 $347 +$2 (+0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $7,000 $217 −$6,783 (-97%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $374 $215 −$159 (-42%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $359 $155 −$204 (-57%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $998 +$2 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $77 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $388 +$3 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $1,148 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10PM ET Jun 21 $958 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $187 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $131 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $339 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $1,265 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $358 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $309 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $68 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $257 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $153 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $76 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 11 $123 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $124 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $224 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $608 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 21m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $212 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $286 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $66 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $26 18h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $92 27h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 29h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 31h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 31h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 32h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 35h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 36h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 37h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 39h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 42h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 43h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $99 46h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $222 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $925 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $198 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $98 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $400 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,315.19 · official $15,315.19 (match) · 3500 history records