Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd27d…fa96
world · 64 markets active 0h ago
8.5score
+$3,077 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,554 · open −$599
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,901
Realized+$3,554
Unrealized−$599
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions17
Markets (closed)47 / 64
History coverage69d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 17 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$336
14 days+$588
30 days+$3,530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 16¢ 44¢ $100 $279 +$179 (+179%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $300 $255 −$45 (-15%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 55¢ $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $700 $178 −$522 (-75%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $150 $94 −$56 (-37%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 56¢ 32¢ $150 $86 −$64 (-43%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+35%)
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $70 $39 −$31 (-44%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 6¢ 5¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$21 -21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $302 +$57 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $150 −$93 -62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $122 +$194 +158%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $380 −$78 -21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $100 −$68 -68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $750 −$337 -45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $100 −$35 -34%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $300 +$37 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $150 −$8 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $100 +$23 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $150 +$402 +268%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $130 +$280 +216%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $150 +$20 +13%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $50 −$25 -50%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $45 −$19 -41%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $203 +$6 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $716 −$281 -39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$36 +70%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 04 $200 +$16 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $600 +$168 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $16 +$126 +814%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $303 +$42 +14%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 03 $101 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $850 +$79 +9%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 02 $303 −$45 -15%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $41 +$28 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $720 +$84 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $270 −$2 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $200 +$998 +499%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $40 +$501 +1252%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $140 +$1,491 +1065%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $20 −$12 -61%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $170 −$24 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $50 −$12 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 12 $110 −$12 -11%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $50 −$34 -69%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $50 −$38 -76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $350 +$55 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $200 +$39 +20%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Apr 18 $20 −$15 -76%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 12 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $10 −$5 -50%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 12 $50 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $10 −$3 -28%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $10 +$33 +334%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 74% +$2,718
other 10% +$295
politics 7% +$154
sports 6% −$251
tech 2% +$57
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $79 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $200 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $157 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $200 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 8¢ $39 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $150 16h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 98¢ $359 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $57 29h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 42¢ $200 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $122 41h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 30¢ $294 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 30¢ $28 47h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $150 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $88 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $145 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $200 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $157 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 4¢ $32 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $160 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes 5¢ $65 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $150 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+69.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +21.5% +9.9% 47% 41% -0.3%
≤30d 35 +115.8% +95.2% 57% 46% +30.0%
≤90d 47 +87.1% +69.2% 53% 40% +26.0%
all 47 +87.1% +69.2% 53% 40% +26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.2% 40% +26.0%
10% +53.0% 26% +14.0%
15% +38.3% 21% +3.0%
20% +24.7% 21% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,901.08 · official $1,899.79 (match) · 189 history records