Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D2 0xd27d…5593 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$5 (-9%) realized −$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day25.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-14.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-5.1%	-14.1%	55%	25%	-19.8%
≤30d	20	-5.1%	-14.1%	55%	25%	-19.8%
≤90d	20	-5.1%	-14.1%	55%	25%	-19.8%
all	20	-5.1%	-14.1%	55%	25%	-19.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover25.5 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-14.1%	25%	-19.8%
10% ← realistic here	-22.3%	10%	-27.5%
15%	-29.9%	5%	-34.5%
20%	-36.7%	5%	-40.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

45% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -3% → late -7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.34 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage3d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day25.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	-7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 14	$2	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Jun 14	$4	$0	-8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$7	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$1	-17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 14	$2	$0	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 14	$2	−$1	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 14	$3	$0	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 14	$1	+$1	+82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	$0	-4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	$0	-2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	$0	+7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$6	$0	+6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$7	−$6	-93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$2	$0	-4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$1	$0	+31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$4	$0	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$1	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	SELL Up	87¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	SELL Down	89¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	SELL Up	13¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	SELL Up	34¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	SELL Up	43¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	SELL Up	52¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$1	14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	100¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	SELL Up	45¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	SELL Up	59¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	SELL Up	54¢	$0	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	SELL Up	65¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$3	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	SELL Down	88¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$1	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	SELL Up	4¢	$0	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records