Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd27d…95ce other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-12%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$19
crypto 28% −$13
sports 14% −$15
economics 10% −$1
politics 6% $0
tech 4% −$2
finance 2% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -17.6% -25.5% 4% 0% -21.7%
≤30d 25 -17.6% -25.5% 4% 0% -21.7%
≤90d 25 -17.6% -25.5% 4% 0% -21.7%
all 25 -17.6% -25.5% 4% 0% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 0% -21.7%
10% -32.6% 0% -29.2%
15% -39.1% 0% -36.0%
20% -45.1% 0% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? No 38¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $44 −$2 -4%
MLP St. Petersburg: St. Louis Shock vs Los Angeles Mad Drops Jun 21 $19 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 20 $16 −$11 -65%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $11 −$2 -13%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 20 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $3 $0 -2%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will one person dissent the July Fed decision? Jun 20 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -16%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 $0 -2%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $34 −$6 -18%
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Czechia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -9%
Will there be a playoff at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $11 −$9 -83%
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 18 $23 $0 -1%
Will Mohamed Salah join Al-Ittihad? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -94%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -47%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Canada vs Qatar Jun 18 $11 −$5 -50%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 18 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Jun 18 $8 $0 -1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -13%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 43¢ $28 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 45¢ $44 1h
MLP St. Petersburg: St. Louis Shock vs Los Angeles Mad Drops SELL Los Angeles Mad Drops 38¢ $19 4h
MLP St. Petersburg: St. Louis Shock vs Los Angeles Mad Drops BUY Los Angeles Mad Drops 38¢ $19 4h
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 64¢ $2 6h
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No $4 13h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No $10 14h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 71¢ $0 14h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 10¢ $11 14h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? SELL No 82¢ $16 15h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? SELL No 82¢ $8 16h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 84¢ $25 16h
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 17h
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 17h
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 21¢ $2 18h
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? BUY No 38¢ $0 18h
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 23¢ $16 18h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 29h
Will one person dissent the July Fed decision? SELL No 82¢ $41 29h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 29h
Will one person dissent the July Fed decision? BUY No 83¢ $42 30h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $4 30h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $5 33h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 34h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 34h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $6 40h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $21 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.03 · official $1.99 (match) · 65 history records