Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd27c…d9b8
sports · 450 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,118 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$705 · open −$413
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$150
Realized−$705
Unrealized−$413
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses242 / 420
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions24
Markets (closed)662 / 450
History coverage25d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day130.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 24 History 662 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$754
7 days−$638
14 days−$689
30 days−$705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$4 (-23%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $13 −$6 (-32%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $16 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 53¢ 58¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 91¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 21¢ 52¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+148%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? No 87¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? No 83¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 60¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? No 93¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 7? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: Draw at halftime? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 6? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 8? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 6? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 7? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 6? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 8? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 6? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wadi Degla SC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Incheon United FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: CA Osasuna (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 19? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana reach $85 on April 7? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -178%
Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Nashville SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OGC Nice vs. FC Metz end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-05-19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 20? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% +$23
other 20% −$369
weather 9% +$8
world 5% −$6
culture 2% +$17
tech 1% +$3
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% −$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 18¢ $1 17m
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 27m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 44m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $2 58m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY No 87¢ $3 1h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 1h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? BUY No 93¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 19¢ $23 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 346 -64.0% -67.4% 22% 10% -23.3%
≤30d 662 -29.9% -36.5% 37% 27% -19.0%
≤90d 662 -29.9% -36.5% 37% 27% -19.0%
all 662 -29.9% -36.5% 37% 27% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover130.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.5% 27% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -42.6% 22% -26.7%
15% -48.2% 17% -33.8%
20% -53.2% 14% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.88 · official $149.89 (match) · 3500 history records